Why Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia: What happens next?

Bashar al-Assad, the former president of Syria, fled the country after being overthrown on Sunday. 

His exit ended not only his 24 years in power but also the 54 years his family had ruled Syria. Before Assad took over in 2000, his father, Hafez al-Assad, had been president for 30 years.

As Assad’s government crumbled, an interim government, led by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was formed in Syria. 

Assad and his family are now in Russia, where they have been granted asylum. But what does the future hold for them?

Why Did Assad Go to Russia?

During the Syrian civil war, Russia was one of Assad‍‍`s strongest allies, and Russia still has two important military bases in Syria. 

In 2015, Russia began airstrikes in support of Assad, which helped the Syrian government stay in power. A UK-based monitoring group reported that over 21,000 people, including 8,700 civilians, were killed in the Russian campaign over nine years. 

However, as Russia became distracted by the war in Ukraine, it was unable to help Assad when rebels launched an unexpected attack in late November.

Within hours of the rebels taking control of parts of Damascus, Russian state media announced that Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and would be given asylum for “humanitarian reasons.”

When reporters asked about Assad’s whereabouts and asylum request, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Monday, “We have nothing to share on this... not yet. Such decisions can only be made by the head of state.”

The BBC has confirmed that Assad’s relationship with Russia has been well-documented. 

A 2019 investigation by the Financial Times revealed that during the war, Assad’s family transferred millions of dollars from Syria and bought at least 18 luxury apartments in Moscow. Assad’s eldest son, Hafez, is currently pursuing a PhD in Moscow, and local news recently reported on his research.

With the ongoing chaos in Syria, Russian state television reported that Moscow officials are working with Syria’s armed opposition to ensure the safety of Russia’s military bases and diplomatic missions.

Who Are Assad‍‍`s Wife and Children?

Assad is married to Asma al-Assad, a dual British-Syrian citizen. Born and raised in West London, Asma studied at university and worked as an investment banker before moving to Syria permanently in 2000. She married Assad around the time he succeeded his father as president.

Dr. Nesrin Alrefai, a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that Asma has a British passport, so she could return to the UK instead of staying in Russia. 

However, Asma’s father, Dr. Fawaz al-Akhras, who is also in Russia, has been sanctioned by the U.S.

Reports say Asma’s parents, who are both professionals — her father is a cardiologist and her mother is a retired diplomat — are in Moscow to support their daughter and son-in-law during this difficult time.

A 2022 U.S. State Department report estimated that the Assad family’s wealth could be between $1 billion and $2 billion. 

Because of the family‍‍`s complex financial dealings, including numerous accounts, real estate investments, and offshore tax havens, the full scope of their wealth is unclear.

The report also stated that the Assads maintained close relationships with Syria‍‍`s top business figures, using these connections to launder illegal profits and funnel government funds. 

Asma, in particular, had significant influence on Syria’s economic policies. She was involved in decisions on subsidies for food and energy, as well as in Syria‍‍`s monetary and trade policies. 

She also influenced foreign aid distribution through the Syria Trust for Development.

In 2020, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Asma of becoming "one of Syria’s most notorious war profiteers" with the help of her husband and his family. 

A senior Trump administration official referred to her as the "business head" of the Assad family, describing her as an "oligarch" competing with Assad’s cousin, Rami Makhlouf, a wealthy businessman. 

Their rivalry was made public after Makhlouf posted a video accusing the regime of mistreating him.

Could Assad Face Trial for His Crimes?

After Assad’s fall, Agnes Callamard, Secretary-General of Amnesty International, stated that Syrians had suffered extreme human rights violations, causing a massive humanitarian crisis. 

These violations include the use of chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, along with murder, torture, forced disappearances, and genocide — all considered crimes against humanity.

Callamard has urged the international community to ensure that those responsible for these violations are investigated and held accountable under international law.

On Tuesday, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Syria’s Islamist opposition, stated that his government would publicly name any senior officials from the fallen Assad regime found to be involved in the torture of political prisoners. 

He also mentioned that efforts would be made to bring back those who had fled the country.

In 2013, French investigators issued an arrest warrant for Assad over his alleged involvement in a deadly chemical attack in Syria.

According to the BBC, Russia does not extradite its own citizens, which means Assad is unlikely to leave Russia for any country where he could face arrest or be sent back to Syria.