Survey: BNP leads in voter preferences, Awami League struggles to retain support among youth

A nationwide survey of 10,696 voters has shown that traditional political loyalties in Bangladesh still hold strong, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) coming out as the leading choice for those who disclosed their voting preferences. 

Conducted by Innovision Consulting and titled "People’s Election Pulse: Feb-March 2025," the survey reveals some significant trends in the political landscape ahead of the general election.

Among the 65% of respondents who revealed their choice, 42% support BNP, making it the front-runner in the race. 

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami comes second, with 32% backing, while the Awami League trails with just 14% of overall support.

Despite the dominance of established political forces, the survey also shows that new voices, particularly from younger voters, are emerging and starting to disrupt the status quo.

A key finding in the survey is that the Awami League, long considered one of the country’s most dominant political parties, has seen its support erode, especially among younger generations. 

The party has managed to maintain a narrow lead over a newly established student-led political party, receiving 11% support from Gen Z voters compared to the student-led party’s 10%. 

This is a significant shift, considering the growing frustration among the youth due to the Awami League’s alleged involvement in election manipulation and political repression over the years.

The Awami League‍‍`s credibility further declined following the events of 2024 when a mass uprising, sparked by the killing of students, led to protests against the government and ultimately the fall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s administration. 

The student-led movement, initially formed out of frustration with the government, has now transformed into a political force advocating for transparency, democratic reforms, and greater accountability. 

This movement’s rise signals a growing disillusionment with Bangladesh’s traditional political structures, particularly among younger voters who are demanding change.

In contrast, BNP has continued to enjoy strong support from older voters, with 47% of those in the Gen X and Boomers II cohorts backing the party. 

Interestingly, Jamaat-e-Islami, traditionally seen as a conservative and religiously inclined party, has managed to garner significant support from younger voters. 

The survey shows that 34% of Gen Z voters support Jamaat-e-Islami, indicating the party‍‍`s surprising appeal across different age groups. 

Additionally, Jamaat-e-Islami’s base is particularly strong among the Post War generation, with 35% backing the party.

Geographically, both BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami hold a stronger presence in rural areas compared to urban centers. 

BNP enjoys 42% support from rural voters, while Jamaat-e-Islami attracts 32%. 

These findings underscore the rural loyalty to these parties, suggesting that their grassroots mobilization efforts are effective in these regions.

In terms of gender support, BNP remains relatively consistent, with 42% of male voters and 41% of female voters supporting the party.

On the other hand, Jamaat-e-Islami’s support is slightly more pronounced among male voters, who make up 33% of its base, compared to 30% of female voters.

The results of this survey highlight the continuing dominance of traditional parties like BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. 

However, they also point to a shift in political dynamics, with the rise of youth-led movements like the student party signaling a change in voter sentiment. 

For the Awami League, maintaining its position in the next election will be challenging, especially as it faces mounting pressure from younger voters looking for fresh leadership.

The upcoming election is likely to focus heavily on candidate performance, as voters demand leaders who can deliver on their promises. 

BNP’s continued strength among older and rural voters, along with Jamaat-e-Islami’s surprising appeal to both younger and older generations, will shape the political landscape in the coming months.

In summary, while the Awami League still retains a loyal base among older voters, its influence among younger generations is dwindling. 

The emerging student-led party, which represents a break from traditional politics, is gaining traction, making the next election an unpredictable and potentially transformative moment in Bangladesh’s political history.