Bangladesh and Pakistan renew ties: A shift that concerns India

Bangladesh and Pakistan, long-time rivals, have recently taken steps towards rebuilding their relationship. 

This comes after the dramatic political changes in Bangladesh last year, when then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was ousted following mass protests in July-August. 

The political upheaval has brought a new chapter in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations, which has caught the attention of India‍‍`s government, its largest neighbor.

For decades, the two countries maintained tense relations, particularly since the 1971 Liberation War, in which Pakistan was on the opposing side. 

India had supported Bangladesh during the war, resulting in a long-standing animosity between Bangladesh and Pakistan.

However, after Hasina‍‍`s rise to power in 2009, the relationship cooled further as she aligned herself with India, distancing Bangladesh from Pakistan.

But things have changed recently. Bangladesh and Pakistan have now resumed direct trade, with Bangladesh importing 50,000 tons of rice from Pakistan. 

Additionally, air and military communications between the two countries have restarted, and visa processes have been simplified. 

These moves mark a remarkable thaw in relations, a development that has drawn cautious attention from India.

Former Bangladeshi diplomat Humayun Kabir commented on the shift, saying, 

"For the past 15 years, the relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan has been complicated, but now it is returning to normal." 

The change has sparked concerns in India, particularly given the country’s strategic interest in maintaining its influence over the region.

This new alliance is especially sensitive as it coincides with a period of strained relations between Bangladesh and India. 

Following Hasina’s ousting, tensions have risen, with allegations of corruption and crimes against humanity leveled against the former Prime Minister. 

India, however, has remained neutral on the matter, raising questions about its stance toward the ongoing developments.

Some analysts suggest that Bangladesh’s new alignment with Pakistan could be a strategic move to counterbalance India‍‍`s influence in the region. 

Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow at King’s College London, believes, “Pakistan and Bangladesh are working together to counter India’s influence.”

Alongside trade and diplomatic engagement, military cooperation between Bangladesh and Pakistan is also deepening. 

In January, a high-level military delegation from Bangladesh visited Pakistan, where they met with Pakistan‍‍`s Army Chief, General Asim Munir.

Furthermore, Bangladesh participated in a multinational naval exercise hosted by Pakistan in February.

India’s former High Commissioner to Bangladesh, Veena Sikri, has expressed concern about the re-engagement of military ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh. 

Sikri remarked that during her tenure, India had raised alarms over Pakistan‍‍`s intelligence agency, ISI, and its connections to Islamist groups in Bangladesh. 

Even though Pakistan and Bangladesh denied such allegations, Sikri sees this new military collaboration as a potential security threat for India.

The situation is further complicated by the volatile border between India and Bangladesh, which has been a source of concern for India. 

The northeastern states of India have been vulnerable to armed insurgent groups using Bangladesh as a base, and this could become easier with the renewed ties between the two countries.

While Bangladesh has cracked down on these insurgent groups, particularly since Hasina‍‍`s return to power in 2009, India remains uneasy about the potential for destabilization. 

Sikri believes that the revival of military relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan is a serious security concern for India, especially considering Pakistan‍‍`s efforts to restore ties with Islamist factions such as Jamaat-e-Islami, which supported Pakistan during the 1971 war.

Although there are claims in Indian media that Pakistani intelligence officers have visited Dhaka and may be working with local insurgent groups, these reports have been firmly rejected by the Bangladeshi government. 

The Pakistani military has also declined to comment on these concerns.

Economically, Bangladesh and Pakistan are moving closer. Although trade between the two nations currently stands at under $700 million, experts believe it could grow significantly in the future. 

With Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar set to visit Dhaka soon, discussions on deepening economic ties are likely to take center stage.

Moreover, following Bangladesh‍‍`s upcoming general elections, the new government may redefine the country‍‍`s foreign policy direction.

One major obstacle to the normalization of relations between the two countries remains the unresolved issue of the 1971 Liberation War.

Bangladesh has repeatedly demanded an official apology from Pakistan for the atrocities committed during the war, a demand that Islamabad has yet to address.

Even former Pakistani military officer Ikram Seghal acknowledges that this issue remains a key barrier to improving bilateral ties.

Seghal has also suggested that Bangladesh should acknowledge the violence inflicted by Bengali language speakers on Urdu speakers during the liberation struggle, as part of the reconciliation process.

Despite these challenges, analysts believe that Bangladesh’s leaders understand the importance of maintaining good relations with India, especially given the economic and linguistic ties between the two countries. 

While the recent developments in Bangladesh-Pakistan relations have caused some alarm in India, they have also opened the door to potential new diplomatic dynamics in the region, with significant implications for India’s security and geopolitical strategy.