Rangpur poised for tight electoral battle as AL reserve votes look decisive

As Bangladesh’s national election approaches, six constituencies in Rangpur district are shaping up for intense contests, with political analysts suggesting that the Awami League’s (AL) ‘reserve votes’ could prove decisive.

Observers on the ground and discussions with local residents indicate that Jamaat-e-Islami has never won a parliamentary seat in Rangpur.

Yet, in this election cycle, the party has become a significant talking point. Traditionally, the region has been dominated by the Jatiya Party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and the Awami League.

With the Awami League barred from contesting, its support base is widely expected to play a crucial role in tipping the balance in tightly fought constituencies.

Political analysts predict a three-way contest among BNP, Jatiya Party, and Jamaat across different areas. Whichever candidate succeeds in attracting the AL’s reserve voters could gain a decisive edge.

Rangpur-1 (Gangachhara–part of Rangpur City)

The main battle in this constituency is expected between BNP’s Mokarram Hossain Sujan and Jamaat’s Prof Raihan Siraji.

Jamaat appears to have gained momentum after the Jatiya Party candidate, Barrister Manjum Ali, had his nomination cancelled.

Manjum Ali accused BNP of orchestrating the move and later asked his supporters not to back BNP at a press briefing.

Long considered a Jatiya Party stronghold, the outcome here is expected to depend largely on the party’s loyal voters combined with AL reserve votes.

Rangpur-2 (Badarganj–Taraganj)

A triangular contest is shaping up among BNP candidate and former MP Mohammad Ali Sarkar, Jamaat’s former acting secretary general ATM Azharul Islam, and Jatiya Party former MP Anisul Islam Mondal.

Although Jamaat has never secured a win here, voters say this time the dynamics are different.

Analysts believe the Jatiya Party candidate could benefit significantly if he attracts AL reserve voters, while internal dissent in the BNP, including a nomination-deprived former MP—may affect its prospects.

Rangpur-3 (Rangpur Sadar–part of Rangpur City)

The key contest is between BNP’s Samsuzzaman Samu and Jatiya Party chairman GM Quader. Jamaat’s Prof Mahbubar Rahman Belal is also considered a strong contender due to his personal image.

BNP rebel candidate Rita Rahman is in the fray as well. With an estimated 60,000 AL reserve votes in the constituency, analysts say the direction of these votes could ultimately determine the outcome.

Rangpur-4 (Pirganj–Kaunia)

Former upazila chairman and Jatiya Party candidate Abu Naser Shah Md Mahbubur Rahman faces strong competition from BNP’s Emdadul Haque Bharsa and NCP member secretary Akhtar Hossain.

Abu Naser’s previous upazila poll victory margin of around 115,000 votes, combined with his personal popularity and the Jatiya Party’s reserve votes, has positioned him as a formidable contender.

Rangpur-5 (Mithapukur)

BNP, Jamaat and Jatiya Party candidates are actively campaigning here. Jatiya Party’s SM Fakhruzzaman Jahangir is targeting AL and like-minded voters, while Jamaat’s Golam Rabbani is appealing to women voters through door-to-door campaigns led by female activists.

BNP candidate Golam Rabbani is seen as comparatively less active. Analysts note that Jatiya Party may benefit from AL reserve votes, but Jamaat maintains a relatively strong traditional support base.

Rangpur-6 (Pirganj)

Several parties, including BNP, Jamaat, NCP, and Islami Andolon Bangladesh, are in the race. Local voters suggest BNP candidate Saiful Islam is leading, with Jamaat and Jatiya Party as his main rivals.

Historically, Jatiya Party has won this seat six times and BNP once. Jamaat has never secured victory here, and its vote share is not expected to be decisive. Saiful Islam’s long tenure as union parishad chairman and his local reputation are seen as advantages.

Fakhrul Anam Benju, president of Sushashoner Janno Nagorik (SUJAN) Rangpur, said the AL’s reserve votes could swing any constituency. “The candidate who can draw these votes will ultimately emerge victorious,” he said.