Bangladesh is going to be under pressure to make choices: Kugelman

A growing number of geopolitical rivalries have been present in Bangladesh. There has been India, China, US, and now Russia is joining in. Bangladesh has historically maintained varying degrees of good relations with all four countries. It is a difficult place to be in because Bangladesh is going to be under pressure to make choices if the Trump administration puts pressure on Bangladesh to do less with China, reports Prothom Alo. 

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, a Washington-based policy research institute, shared this perspective during a panel discussion on geopolitical issues on Thursday afternoon.

The discussion, titled “Bangladesh at Geopolitical Crossroads,” was organised by The Daily Star’s Geopolitical Insights. The Daily Star Editor Mahfuz Anam delivered the welcome speech, while Ramisa Rob, Editor of Geopolitical Insights, moderated the session.

Kugelman noted that significant developments have taken place in Bangladesh over the past six months. He said that he felt the foreign policy was not really a priority for the interim government right now, because it‍‍`s dealing with all these immediate issues. He added, "That‍‍`s a difficult place to be in because Bangladesh is going to be under pressure to make choices. If the Trump administration puts pressure on Bangladesh to do less with China, Bangladesh is going to have to respond to that in some way." 

Professor Selim Raihan, Executive Director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (SANEM) and a faculty member at Dhaka University, remarked that Bangladesh’s current geopolitical position is unsustainable and uncertain. He highlighted that global trade would be impacted by these uncertainties.

“Uncertain geopolitics sometimes benefits certain countries,” he noted. “During Trump’s previous tenure, the US-China trade war created opportunities for Bangladesh. However, we failed to capitalise on that because we were unprepared. Unfortunately, we remain unprepared for such a situation today.”

During the discussion, the topic of the foreign affairs adviser’s visit to China was raised. Michael Kugelman commented that following the fall of the Hasina government, the interim administration appears to be leaning towards China. It remains uncertain how the Trump administration will respond to this shift. However, it seems likely that Trump’s focus will be more on economic issues rather than strategic concerns. Nonetheless, there is a possibility that Washington may exert pressure on Bangladesh regarding relations with China. Andm he added, "Bangladesh does not want to upset the Trump administration."

Professor Selim Raihan viewed the visit in a positive light, stating, “I believe the Foreign Affairs Adviser’s trip to China was a constructive step. However, we would like to see a stronger inflow of Chinese investment into Bangladesh.”

Shafqat Munir, Senior Fellow at the Bangladesh Institute for Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), proposed forming a commission to review Bangladesh’s foreign policy and international relations over the past 15 years. He emphasised, “We need to identify our own challenges, define the kind of foreign policy that best serves our interests, and assess whether our existing framework is adequately prepared to address these issues.”

Regarding Bangladesh’s relations with India, Kugelman noted, "For India, what‍‍`s most concerning now is the Jamaat factor and the Pakistan factor, and particularly Bangladesh‍‍`s efforts to to build up a better relationship with with Pakistan." He said, "My sense is that India would like to see an election here sooner rather later. If there is an election anytime in the relatively near future, there‍‍`s a good chance that BNP would come back. And I think India might feel that if BNP is serious about ending its alliance with Jamaat, that could create more opportunities for India to actually be comfortable engaging with the government in Dhaka."

During the discussion, The Daily Star Editor Mahfuz Anam asked the panelists about the ideal nature of Bangladesh-India relations in the political, economic, and security context.

In response, Professor Selim Raihan stated, “India is an important partner for Bangladesh. We must continue fostering positive relations with India. However, these ties should be built on mutual trust and confidence.”

Shafqat Munir added that Bangladesh’s relationship with India should be “constructive and positive, aligning with the aspirations of students and the general public, evolving with the demands of the time, and rooted in mutual trust and respect.”

The discussion also featured insights from former Foreign Affairs Adviser to the caretaker government Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Professor Marufa Akhter, former ambassadors Tariq Karim and Munshi Faiz Ahmed, among others.