A newly published study in The Lancet warns that sharp cuts to U.S. foreign aid could result in more than 1.4 million preventable deaths worldwide over the next five years—one third of them children under five.
The research, released ahead of a United Nations conference in Spain aimed at revitalizing global humanitarian efforts, models the impact of reductions in funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).
Until January 2025, USAID provided over 40 percent of global humanitarian assistance. However, two weeks into the newly inaugurated Trump administration, a senior advisor announced that USAID would be effectively shuttered, triggering an 83 percent cut in U.S. aid commitments.
An international team led by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) reviewed data from 133 low‑ and middle‑income countries.
They estimate that, between 2001 and 2021, USAID funding helped avert approximately 910 million premature deaths.
Using demographic and health modeling, the researchers project that the current funding cuts could cause 1 402 000 additional deaths by 2030 that would otherwise have been preventable.
Of these, more than 450 000 are expected to be children under five—equating to roughly 700 000 young lives lost each year.
David Rusella, co‑author of the paper and a researcher at ISGlobal, likened the abrupt withdrawal of aid to a pandemic in its severity, warning that decades of progress in fragile health systems are now at great risk.
He noted that the projected death toll in five years rivals the human cost of World War I, when an estimated 10 million lives were lost over four years.
The authors call for urgent restoration and scaling of humanitarian funding to protect vulnerable populations and uphold the hard‑won gains in global health and development.
