Tarique Rahman emerges as top choice for PM in final pre-election Poll

With the 13th National Parliamentary Election just days away, BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman has secured a commanding lead as the public’s preferred candidate for Prime Minister.

The People’s Election Pulse Survey (Round 3), conducted by Innovision Consulting between January 16 and 27, indicates that 47.6% of voters favor Rahman to lead the next government. His closest competitor, Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat–NCP alliance, stands at 22.5%, while a significant 22.2% of the electorate remains undecided.

The poll, which reached 5,147 respondents nationwide via telephone (CATI), highlights a nation prepared for a massive democratic exercise on February 12.

Voter Intent:

An overwhelming 93.3% of respondents plan to vote.
Security Sentiment: 82.3% of voters feel safe casting their ballots, a notable increase from previous months.
Institutional Trust: 72.3% trust the interim government’s impartiality, while 74.4% believe local administration and police will remain neutral.

Shift in political allegiances

The data reveals a major realignment of the Bangladeshi voter base following the political shifts of late 2024. Notably, 32.9% of former Awami League supporters have migrated toward the BNP, while 13.2% have shifted their support to the Jamaat–NCP alliance.

In the parliamentary race, the BNP-led alliance holds 52.8% of support among decided voters, compared to 31.0% for the Jamaat–NCP bloc. 

However, analysts warn of a "silent" factor: roughly 13.2% of respondents refused to disclose their choice, and over 30% of the total surveyed population across all rounds has shown volatility in their preferences.

The "July Charter" Referendum

Voters will also decide on the July Charter—a constitutional reform package—on election day. 

The survey shows strong support for the reform:

Yes:59.5%
No: 6.8%
Undecided: 33.7%

"While the BNP currently holds a significant lead, the high percentage of undecided and non-disclosing voters means this election remains anybody‍‍`s game," noted an analyst from Innovision.