WB‍‍`s Bangladesh growth forecast stays unchanged

The World Bank has kept Bangladesh’s economic growth forecast for FY24 unchanged at 6.2 percent, saying inflationary pressure will ease in the upcoming fiscal year beginning on July 1.

The global lender expects Bangladesh to accelerate reform implementation, and complete transportation and energy infrastructure megaprojects in the next financial year starting on Jul 1.

These factors will help the country’s growth to accelerate, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday.

It also kept the forecast for the outgoing financial year unchanged after cutting it further by a 0.9 percentage point to 5.2 percent six months ago.

Bangladesh’s gains in market share in key export markets are expected to sustain export growth, offsetting the effects of weaker growth in advanced economies, the report said.

But elevated inflation, policy uncertainty, and weakening external demand are expected to slow growth in FY23 from 7.1 percent in the previous fiscal year,

In its budget proposed for the upcoming financial year, the government has set an “ambitious” 7.5 percent growth target although economists doubt if the government took into account the risks of volatility in the global economy while setting the goal.

After Bangladesh posted 7.1 percent GDP growth in 2021-22 by tackling the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the government set a target of 7.5 percent for FY23.

As the Russia-Ukraine war hit the global economy hard, the government revised the target down to 6.5 percent.

But even that target became difficult to achieve. The national statistical agency in March projected 6.03 percent growth for the outgoing fiscal year.